• Markets: ERCOT, Texas and NORD, Italy
  • Backtests on real prices, May 2025 to Aug 2026
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Power decisions for data centers in Texas

AI and hosting campuses carry large, steady loads, backup engines that rarely run and batteries that mostly wait. The plan puts them to work in the hours when grid power is dearest, within the uptime limits you set.

DatasheetData centers
Markets
ERCOT; Milan (NORD) modeled
Site size
20 to 300 MW
Assets
Gas engines, batteries, UPS, flexible compute
Decisions
Run on site, discharge, curtail, buy from grid
To start
One meter export and an equipment list

Summer peaks

Four intervals a year set your transmission charge

In ERCOT, a site's load during the system's highest 15-minute interval in each of June, July, August and September sets its transmission charge for the following year. Shed load in those intervals and the charge falls.

Transmission charge calculator

ERCOT 2025, real peaks

MW
Average of the four intervals. Your meter data shows it; the meter check works it out for you.
$ per MW-year
Estimate. Your utility's tariff sets the exact rate.
MW
From engines, battery or deferrable compute.
Charge next year$3,300,000
If you shed in all four$2,750,000
Saving a year$550,000
Fig. 1ERCOT system daily peak load, 2025, in GW. The four marked days set the 2025 transmission charges. Hourly EIA-930 load.

The calculation is load times rate, before and after shedding. It assumes you know the peak day in advance, which nobody does for certain. The console estimates each day's chance of being the peak and plans to it.

ERCOT's 2025 summer peak hours
MonthPeak hourERCOT load
June19 Jun 2025, 16:0077.3 GW
July30 Jul 2025, 17:0081.7 GW
August18 Aug 2025, 17:0083.6 GW
September4 Sep 2025, 17:0079.9 GW

The peak hours above come from hourly EIA-930 system load, hour beginning. ERCOT settles on 15-minute intervals, so the exact interval can differ.

The Public Utility Commission of Texas is reviewing whether to move from four summer peaks to twelve monthly peaks. Under twelve, shedding in four summer hours is no longer enough, and a plan tuned for four peaks can cost far more. The console prices both.

Replay 30 July 2025, the day of July's peak, hour by hour.

Backup equipment

Engines and batteries that earn their keep

Backup generation is sized for the worst day and idles the rest of the year. Where permits allow, the plan runs it when the grid costs more than the fuel, and keeps the battery ready for the spikes.

Stacked supply by hour: engines carry the site through the evening, the battery discharges before the spike and 6 MW of compute is curtailed at 19:00.
Fig. 216 May 2025: engines ramp up through the afternoon, the battery covers the run-up and compute is curtailed for one hour.
Decision for 19:00: curtail 6 MW.
Fig. 3One decision per hour, with the reason behind it.
  • Curtail only when it pays. Compute is shed only in hours where grid power costs more than the site says a megawatt-hour of compute is worth.
  • Permits first. Run hours, starts and NOx are counted against your permit limits.
  • SB 6 ready. Where backup covers at least half of the load, ERCOT may direct a site to run it or curtail in an emergency. The console shows how each hour would be covered.

Contract and rules

Savings only count if your contract passes them on

Peak charges reach you under almost any supply contract. Energy savings depend on its structure. The bill view tests index, block-and-index and fixed all-in contracts, and the regulation view checks the Texas rules that apply to your site.

Waterfall of the yearly bill for the reference campus, from grid power to lost compute, totalling $24.95M.
Fig. 4The yearly bill, step by step.
Texas grid and interconnection rules for the site, each with its status, statute and source.
Fig. 5Texas rules checked against the site's size and equipment.

Backtest

AI campuses, 476 days of real prices

Energy cost including peak charges, 1 May 2025 to 23 August 2026. Sites are modeled; campuses A to C from public announcements.

Site (modeled)International BatteriesSpark-spread ruleGrid firstSaving vs rule
Reference AI campus, 100 MW$32.53M$33.75M$42.10M3.6%
West Texas AI campus A$20.75M$23.12M$90.40M10.3%
West Texas AI campus B$54.60M$56.45M$105.28M3.3%
West Texas AI campus C$29.94M$30.70M$47.34M2.5%

Not customer results. Campuses A to C use partly assumed equipment and hub prices.

Next step

Find your load in last summer's peaks

Drop your meter export into the meter check. It finds your load in each 2025 peak hour and prices your year at real-time hub prices, in your browser.

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